Semi-irregular Jon Lester First Ballot Hall of Fame Update

Jon Lester's record as of Aug. 22nd: 12-4

Probability that Lester is elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame on the first ballot: 6%

This means there is a 6% chance of the Ejected Fan doing incalculable damage to my groin area. If that indeed happens, I propose to my fellow bloggers that we hire this boy to recap the action:

The Return of Big Papi - The Introduction of Lil' Papi Game Report, 7/27/08 vs. New York Yankees

A game recap not done by the Ejected Fan? A Yankees/Red Sox game where we saw no ejections? (Although apparently there was one.) We even introduce two new Sox fans to the blog, so read on!

This game did not look like it was going to happen. HzMLS and I had weather.com and boston.com open on our laptops trying to monitor the situation. As soon as the rain stopped, we hit the road. With Jenny Cupcakes and Dan Haren, Jr. (DHJ) in tow, we arrived at the park rather early. The first thing we noticed was a young boy sitting in front of us with an Ortiz jersey that said "Papi" on the back and a hat embroidered with the nickname "Lil' Papi." As the Sox began to embarrass the Yankees, we struck up a conversation with Lil' Papi. Turns out he and his family came all the way from Indianapolis to see the Sox take on the Evil Empire. HzMLS and I ask if he is a fan of other Boston sports. He and his dad mention the Celtics, but admit that their football allegiance lies with the Colts. HzMLS quotes a Meatloaf song. Some other gems from Lil' Papi:

• When HzMLS began ribbing him for liking the Colts, Lil' Papi turned to him and asked "Hey, when's the last time your team won the Championship?"
• HzMLS asked him who his favorite player is, not including Ortiz of course. Lil' Papi cited Ted Williams, which prompts HzMLS to ask if Lil' Papi knows the significance of the red seat in the bleachers. Lil' Papi explains that a man in the crowd of a Sox game fell asleep in that seat, so Ted Williams hit a home run off his head to wake him up.
• Lil' Papi had a Spiderman camera. HzMLS asserts that Spiderman is the greatest superhero. I disagree, citing Batman, which prompts the following discussion:

Me: Batman is way better. He has the Batmobile. Have you ever heard of the Spidermobile?

HzMLS: So? He shoots webs. Does Batman shoot webs?

Me: No. He shoots blades out of his wrists.

HzMLS: Yeah, but can those blades save someone who is falling?

• After a few beers, HzMLS quips that he would like a Lil' Papi hat to wear on his crotch.

Some other non-Lil' Papi gems from the night:

• During one of Richie Sexson's ABs, the following fact appears on the JumboTron: "At 6'7", Sexson is the tallest position player in Yankees history." DHJ and I joke that it should read: "At 6'7", Sexson is the worst position player in Yankees history."
• Jenny Cupcakes comments that she hates Robinson Cano, prompting avid approval from fans next to us, and even screams of "I HATE YOU!" during Cano's ABs.

• Talking with the family in front of us, HzMLS and I struggle to name even one player on the Pacers. Our guesses of Stephen Jackson, Austin Croshere, Jermaine O'Neal, and Al Harrington are shot down. When we finally land on Jamaal Tinsley, Lil' Papi's dad informs us that the Pacers are trying to trade him.
• HzMLS spies an acquaintance about 10 rows in front of us, and informs our group that he was FutureMrs.HzMLS's date to a high school prom. After some liquid encouragement, he shouts, "Hey! You know your junior prom date? Yeah, I'm marrying her!"
• On our way out of the park, HzMLS begins talking about plans for his bachelor party. Jenny Cupcakes comments that she wishes she was a guy so she could go to bachelor parties. HzMLS tells her, "You're not a bachelor, you're a bachelorette! There's like a 6 1/2 inch difference."
• I comment that we should sell advertising on the Ejected Fan, and use the proceeds to buy HzMLS alcohol at games, to fuel material for the site.

All in all, a great game, Sox were able to salvage one and fend off a sweep, thanks to some stellar pitching by future HOFer Jon Lester. And we got to see Big Papi go deep. But the night belonged to Lil' Papi.

The No-No Song

So I have another bigger post coming, but first I feel like I have to address a certain local baseball event that occurred last night.  Seems as if almost as soon as I said Lester should spend some time in the minors to work on his control, he has been just absolutely dominating, culminating in last night's no-hitter.  I'm certainly fully prepared to admit I was wrong, and while we all are aware of the dangers of a small sample size, there were many things I saw last night that were very encouraging.

The first and biggest one being that, as far as I could tell, wherever Tek put the glove, Lester hit it.  He wanted the cutter inside, it was inside.  Curves in the dirt, fastballs away, Les was hitting every spot.  Period.  It's that kind of control that I wish we saw more of, and we saw it top to bottom, pitch after pitch last night.  Truly masterful.

The second was that Lester was getting swings and misses, which is huge. Eight strikeouts on the night and all the while maintaining his velocity all the way through was a huge key.  He's not exactly a power pitcher, but he was able to keep the hitters off-balance just enough last night by mixing up his stuff.

The final encouraging factor is that maybe all of us Sox fans have underestimated how much of a toll Lester's cancer took on him.  I know I was quick to assume that if he's back in a uniform, he must be 100%.  Maybe he's still working his way back.  Maybe he hasn't reached his peak yet. If that's the case, I may be expecting some crotch-shots from the ejected fan.

Also, as a side note, can Yankee fans please finally give up the

HUGHES + KENNEDY >>>> LESTER + BUCHHOLZ!!!!!11111!!!oneoneone

Anyone who still thinks that is going to get laughed at by even the most common of baseball fans.

And side note #2: Your editors here at the EjF are now the proud sponsors of Bartolo Colon's Baseball Reference page.

Semi-Irregular Jon Lester First Ballot HOF Update: Jon Lester NO HITTER!

Lester threw a no hitter!

Enough said.

This is number one of many.

Smarty Barrett will be kicked in the nuts in 20 years...

Edited: Craziness

i just want to say: if Jon Lester is a first ballot HOFer, i will give you back the $20 i'm going to win when Miggy Tejada finishes the season on the DL with a pituitary tumor and 13 home runs.

also, Smarty Barrett will let you punch him in the crotch.

Is Lester More?

The 2008 Sox pitching staff may be looked upon 10 years from now as one of the best pitching staffs ever. Sure, it might not seem that way right now, but give it some time. Buchholz and Lester are both gaining experience on the major league stage. They could both easily blossom into 1st ballot Hall of Fame pitchers. Neither pitcher has had the debilitating outing that Yankee rookie pitcher Chase Wright had when he gave up four home runs in a row last year to the Sox. That sort of thing can really effect a young hurler's confidence.

Lester’s last two perfomances have been close to stellar: a near complete game against Halladay and 1 run performance against the Rays. Given these last 2 outings, I find it extremely difficult to recommend Lester be designated to AAA. In fact based on major league experience alone, I would rather see Lester remain a starter and Buchholz be sent to the bullpen to aid Bat Shit as a long reliever/spot starter. Lester can be a big game pitcher. Look at his performance against Halladay last week and also in game 4 of the 2007 World Series. He comes up big when it is on the line. I do feel however that his growth was stunted a bit in 2006 after Varitek went on the DL followed shortly thereafter by Lester’s diagnosis with cancer. I think Varitek catching these young pitchers can make all the difference in the world in their confidence levels to throw certain pitches to a good hitter. For these youngsters, pitching in the major leagues is about confidence in their abilities. I think Lester has this already.

Who knows what will happen if and when they bring up Fat Boy Colon. Let’s see how he does in his first start. If he sucks, drop his ass like a fantasy dud . I can’t see Colon going to the bullpen. Basically, the Sox are going to have to make a move with either Buchholz or Lester if they plan on bringing Colon up. What would be the big deal if you moved Buchholz to the bullpen? Yeah, they talk about pitcher’s rhythm and routine every 5th day, but come on already. Last year Brett Myers of the Phillies moved to the closer role midway through the season and then moved back to being a starter. It’s no big deal. Teams have to stop babying these pitchers, but at the same time the pitchers themselves have to know what their limits are. Is the net effect of adding Colon to the rotation going to benefit the Sox? Will it fuck up the rhythm these young pitchers have established? I don’t know. However, I feel that if they send Colon to the bullpen he will become the 2008 version of Eric Gagne.

Collaboration! Co-Lesteration! Reverse Colónostomy?

Sporadically, the nerds over at the Ejected fan will argue over the Red Sox. Usually these conversations happen over a beer or twelve, but when they are done sober the editors of the Ejected Fan will bring you into the discussion. Today's topic: What should be done with Jon Lester? (Please note, this discussion was started before his last start, when he was absolutely brilliant.)

dubbschism:
i will start this discussion with a quick chart, to show the world i have a pirated copy of microsoft excel and i know how to use it.

Majors -
Year	IP	BB/IP	H/IP	WHIP
2006	81.1	0.53	1.12	1.65
2007	63	0.49	0.97	1.46
2008	31.2	0.6	0.85	1.45
Minors -
2003	106	0.42	0.96	1.38
2004	91	0.43	0.9	1.33
2005	148.1	0.38	0.77	1.15
2006	47	0.53	0.91	1.45

as you can see, Lester's problem is his control. his .85 H/IP thus far this year is better than any mark he's ever put up, not counting 2005 in Portland. now i'm not exactly sure of what the hitting environment is like in the International League, but he did have a huge jump in BB/IP from 05 (AA) to 06 (AAA) [sidenote: i left out his AAA stats from '07 as it was a rehab assignment and therefore possibly not indicative of his true capabilities. caveat for 2007 in the bigs too, although he did post a decent .49 BB/IP level in limited time there.]

my point here is that his stuff is nasty, he just needs to throw strikes more often. i'm guessing that the hitters in the international league aren't going to be nearly as patient as what he's going to face up in boston, especially with so many starts against the yankees and other patient teams. i say the Sox sort of have the luxury of letting him develop his control at the big league level - his pitch count will go up and he generally wont make it past the 6th, but we have a capable bullpen and a potent enough offense to make up for the runs he may give up. pitching to aggressive minor league hackers isn't going to force him to establish the command that will turn him into an elite starter. he has the stuff. does this make sense?




The Ejected Fan: abstained

Hazel Mae’s Landing Strip: I would like to use stats like dubb, but I am far too lazy to look them up. I guess I will have to use the Dusty Baker method and talk about what I see. What I see is a guy with good stuff that isn't attacking the strike zone. Last year he showed what he was capable of, especially in Game 4 against the Rockies, where he shut them down for 6+ innings. But this year he has to be the most frustrating pitcher on the staff to watch, because he has the stuff but he doesn’t attack the hitters! I don't know if Lester is trying to nibble too much (a la Dice-K) or just has poor control of his pitches. When he first came up as a rookie in '06 I thought the wildness and getting out of jams would be something he would grow out of. Guess I was wrong. Should we drop him back to the minors to work on mechanics? I am going to say no - he needs a full season under his belt, which for a variety of reasons he hasn't been able to do. He is pitching in front of a prolific offense that should be able to bail him out of some his bad starts, and we always have Bat Shit (Tavarez - hat tip: Surviving Grady) in the pen if it gets out of control. With a full season working John Farrell and getting advice from Beckett, he might be able to work the kinks out of his game and really become the pitcher Boston fans have been hoping for. Patience my friends, patience.

The Ejected fan : pass






Smarty Barrett- Don't get me wrong - Jon Lester is a great story. The cancer thing, the clinching of the World Series, all that. Not only that, I love Jon Lester. [dubbschism says: love like the way i love sushi, or love like the way i love Didi Malloy on The Riches?] I think he has great stuff, he's confident, and he has great composure both on and off the field. As a Red Sox fan, nothing would make me happier than seeing him do well. That said, I really think he could benefit from some time in the minors once Colón is ready to join the big club. Stats as well as the untrained eye will tell you that Lester's biggest problem is throwing strikes.

Take note of the following:

• In his career, Lester's first pitch to any given batter is ball one 53% of the time.
• Nearly 2/3 of his base on balls are on either 4 pitches or 5 pitches, which indicates that he has trouble recovering when throwing ball one.
• In his career, he is walking one batter per 7.6 plate appearances.
  
  

And with this control trouble comes, of course, more pitches. Entering his last start, Lester was averaging 18 pitches per inning. His average outing was 5 and 1/3 innings, but his average pitch count per outing was 93 pitches.

Based on this data, you can say that Lester clearly needs to work on his command. If the Red Sox were the Pirates or the Reds or the Royals, I would be perfectly content seeing him work out these kinks in the majors against big-league hitting and working through the growing pains. However, the Red Sox are a team that can contend for another World Series title and they cannot afford his failures up here every 5th day. Control mainly has to do with mechanical issues and repetition of delivery. These can ALL be worked on about an hour down 95 in Pawtucket. There are some things that I can tolerate guys working on up here at the big-league level. Throwing strikes is not one of them.



The Ejected fan : silence