Semi-Irregular Miguel Tejada Home Run Update

today's date: 08/08/08
Miggy's current HR total: 11
Miggy's projected HR total, should he keep up this pace: 16
probability that the ejected fan wins my $20, unscrupulously puts it in a Roth IRA with hopes of the principal maturing into the approximately $6,000* it would cost him for reconstructive surgery so as to look like Eddie Vedder, then spends the $6,000 on reconstructive surgery so as to look like Eddie Vedder: 15%
probability that the ejected fan would get recontructive surgery so as to look like Eddie Vedder, if he had the money to spend regardless of Miggy's 2008 HR stats: 97%.



*i calculated this number using a complex algorithm involving costs of various plastics surgeries people have undergone in an effort to emulate their favorite celebrities. the actual cost would be $6,124. it's accurate.

Edited: Craziness

i just want to say: if Jon Lester is a first ballot HOFer, i will give you back the $20 i'm going to win when Miggy Tejada finishes the season on the DL with a pituitary tumor and 13 home runs.

also, Smarty Barrett will let you punch him in the crotch.

And what's this? He's pointing to the right-field bleachers, probably at a dying little boy.

It's time for your mandatory Miguel Tejada weekly update, folks! Much to dubb's displeasure, Tejada launched his 5th homer of the season on Friday night, and it turns out that he promised a young boy with muscular dystrophy that he would go deep. I've always been a semi-sucker for stories like this, but I'm sure the ejected fan is going to start crafting phony letters from fictional kids with serious illnesses and mail them to Tejada in hopes of winning his $20 bet. I say here's to you Miggy!

So I guess the ejected fan would be upset if I didn't recap the rest of my weekend, being that I went to all 3 Sox games vs. the Devil Rays, and although I probably won't be able to weave a tale as eloquent as HzMLS did, here goes:

Friday Night:


Saturday Night:
Our evening began with HzMLS and I stopping off at a watering hole near Fenway, where I promptly inhaled 2 rather strong (and rather expensive) adult beverages. They would prove to be helpful, as fellow fan EGD2 and myself were sitting in the CVS Family Section, aka the alcohol-free zone. Our particular section was patrolled by none other than Mr. Miyagi, who confiscated beers and roughed up hooligans. Needless to say, we saw many ejected fans. The ejf himself would have been jealous.

After the game, HzMLS and I went to a local karaoke bar that we often frequent to get absolutely top-tier sidewalk-puking obliterated. After a few more beverages, we begin to jot our blog addresses on a karaoke slip or 30, and leave them scattered around the bar. Then, after a riveting performance of a popular rap tune, HzMLS began shouting out "EJECTEDFAN.BLOGSPOT.COM" until the DJ's cut his mic and made us promise to not drive home. Big beats hit streets, see bloggers roamin'...


Sunday Afternoon:
After waking up with a trash can next to my bed and bits of Cracker Jacks stuck to my pants, I prepared for my final trek to America's Most Beloved Ballpark. I put on my alcohol-and-food-stained Red Sox sweatshirt that I had worn to the previous two games and got ready to go. The Sox hoodie was absolutely necessary no matter how dirty it was, because they had won the previous two games when I wore it, and yes, I am that superstitious. I didn't care that I looked incredibly homeless hungover.
The highlight of this game was the ever stereotypical Sox fan about 10 rows in front of us who frequently stood and screamed Let's Go SAWX! amongst other re-taahhhded things. We called him Sully from Quincy, although it could have easily been Smitty from Dorchester or Mikey from Southie.


All-in-all, the Sox are now 5-0 in games I attend, including 3-0 in games all 4 members of the EjF attend. So I assume all you loyal readers will want to take us to a game to ensure a Sox win, so hit us up!!

I Have $20 Riding On This Man

Miguel Tejada - mvp, dynamic slugger, franchise face of the Baltimore Orioles, quickly deteriorating defensive genius, steroid user, 33-year old father of two.

the hits just keep on coming for Miggy. i hope that most of those hits stay in the ballpark, because i have a $20 bet with the ejected fan that Tejada does not send the ball over the fence 20 or more times this season. this may seem like a foolish bet (not nearly as foolish as the time ejected fan bet me $5 that i couldn't get 100% on "my name is jonas" whilst on level "easy" in Guitar Hero 3), but it is looking wiser and wiser by the minute. first, let's examine why you all probably think i'm a jackass for making that bet.

Tejada's HR totals the last 3 years:
2007: 18 in 133 games
2006: 24 in 162 games
2005: 26 in 162 games

right off the bat, notice that if Miggy was healthy enough last year to play 162, he'd have been projected to hit about 22 dingers. assuming a linear projection then, he might hit 20 this year, had he stayed in the AL east with the Orioles. alas! he moved to a notorious hitter's park at Houston's Minute Maid Park. so why wouldn't he hit at least 20?

dubbschism: i bet you $20 that Tejada doesn't hit 20 homers this year.
ejected fan: what? are you ducking* crazy?
dubbschism: yes.
ejected fan: dude, he's playing in Houston this year. in that ballpark? come on.
dubbschism: yes or no? will you bet?
ejected fan: dual* yes.

*for those of you unfamiliar with t9-style** swear words, here is an incomplete dictionary:
dual = fuck
shiv = shit
ducked = fucked
ducking = fucking
citag = bitch
...you get the idea. for extra fun, type in the word "coal" and then scroll through the word list.

**for those of you unfamiliar with t9, use the ducking internet.

okay! the only problem here with ejected fan's reasoning is that Minute Maid is not a HR park! its park factor for 2007 places it 14th in baseball. Camden Yards? 3rd place. based on a simple linear projection of Tejada's recent work and his move to Minute Maid, he'll hit 17 home runs - and that's if he plays 162 games. based on his history, he's a good bet to play 162, but with recent allegations, he probably won't. so far he has appeared in all 16 games the Astros have played.

of course when i made my bet, i figured Tejada was 31, not 33. (apparently, he's dug himself in a pit of fibs so deep he's not even sure how old he is supposed to be.) and i'll admit, i didn't realize how average MMP was for HR hitters, but i did have an inkling his HR total was padded slightly by the friendly confines of Camden Yards. i also have a feeling that Tejada is easily flustered (and given his reaction when E:60 correspondent Tom Farrey confronted him with his birth certificate, i guessed correctly) and the fallout of being named in the Mitchell report would affect him in some way. although to be fair, when future HOFer Rafael Palmeiro fingered Miggy as the cause of his own steroid allegations, Tejada shook it off and produced at his typical level the following season. but for all the teeth it lacks, fans are taking the Mitchell report much more seriously than whatever Palmeiro has to say. working against me is the fact that Tejada has 3 taters in 16 games, putting him on pace for 30. and we know how important those kinds of projections are.

on another note, i'm so ducking glad i'm not as big of an Astros fan as i used to be. Ed Wade is quickly approaching Brian Sabean level as far as GMing skills are concerned. dude trades the farm for Tejada and Jose Valverde, somehow convinced that they're going to contend in the NL central (worst or second-worst division in baseball, to be sure) without any pitching besides Oswalt. then, as if to say, "verily! i have no idea what running a baseball team entails!", he claims not to care that Tejada is actually two years older than he originally thought. my guess is he had no clue how old he was to begin with.