Friday, April 18, 2008

I Have $20 Riding On This Man

Miguel Tejada - mvp, dynamic slugger, franchise face of the Baltimore Orioles, quickly deteriorating defensive genius, steroid user, 33-year old father of two.

the hits just keep on coming for Miggy. i hope that most of those hits stay in the ballpark, because i have a $20 bet with the ejected fan that Tejada does not send the ball over the fence 20 or more times this season. this may seem like a foolish bet (not nearly as foolish as the time ejected fan bet me $5 that i couldn't get 100% on "my name is jonas" whilst on level "easy" in Guitar Hero 3), but it is looking wiser and wiser by the minute. first, let's examine why you all probably think i'm a jackass for making that bet.

Tejada's HR totals the last 3 years:
2007: 18 in 133 games
2006: 24 in 162 games
2005: 26 in 162 games

right off the bat, notice that if Miggy was healthy enough last year to play 162, he'd have been projected to hit about 22 dingers. assuming a linear projection then, he might hit 20 this year, had he stayed in the AL east with the Orioles. alas! he moved to a notorious hitter's park at Houston's Minute Maid Park. so why wouldn't he hit at least 20?

dubbschism: i bet you $20 that Tejada doesn't hit 20 homers this year.
ejected fan: what? are you ducking* crazy?
dubbschism: yes.
ejected fan: dude, he's playing in Houston this year. in that ballpark? come on.
dubbschism: yes or no? will you bet?
ejected fan: dual* yes.

*for those of you unfamiliar with t9-style** swear words, here is an incomplete dictionary:
dual = fuck
shiv = shit
ducked = fucked
ducking = fucking
citag = bitch get the idea. for extra fun, type in the word "coal" and then scroll through the word list.

**for those of you unfamiliar with t9, use the ducking internet.

okay! the only problem here with ejected fan's reasoning is that Minute Maid is not a HR park! its park factor for 2007 places it 14th in baseball. Camden Yards? 3rd place. based on a simple linear projection of Tejada's recent work and his move to Minute Maid, he'll hit 17 home runs - and that's if he plays 162 games. based on his history, he's a good bet to play 162, but with recent allegations, he probably won't. so far he has appeared in all 16 games the Astros have played.

of course when i made my bet, i figured Tejada was 31, not 33. (apparently, he's dug himself in a pit of fibs so deep he's not even sure how old he is supposed to be.) and i'll admit, i didn't realize how average MMP was for HR hitters, but i did have an inkling his HR total was padded slightly by the friendly confines of Camden Yards. i also have a feeling that Tejada is easily flustered (and given his reaction when E:60 correspondent Tom Farrey confronted him with his birth certificate, i guessed correctly) and the fallout of being named in the Mitchell report would affect him in some way. although to be fair, when future HOFer Rafael Palmeiro fingered Miggy as the cause of his own steroid allegations, Tejada shook it off and produced at his typical level the following season. but for all the teeth it lacks, fans are taking the Mitchell report much more seriously than whatever Palmeiro has to say. working against me is the fact that Tejada has 3 taters in 16 games, putting him on pace for 30. and we know how important those kinds of projections are.

on another note, i'm so ducking glad i'm not as big of an Astros fan as i used to be. Ed Wade is quickly approaching Brian Sabean level as far as GMing skills are concerned. dude trades the farm for Tejada and Jose Valverde, somehow convinced that they're going to contend in the NL central (worst or second-worst division in baseball, to be sure) without any pitching besides Oswalt. then, as if to say, "verily! i have no idea what running a baseball team entails!", he claims not to care that Tejada is actually two years older than he originally thought. my guess is he had no clue how old he was to begin with.

1 comment:

Jumpstreet said...

I place my bet with the statistician known as dubbschism here based purely on the information put forth in his one-sided argument here. Sounds like there's no way Miggy will make 20 unless he doubles his steroid use and given the heat he's taking it doesn't seem likely.